USD Swing High – Look Out Below

The USD has formed a “swing high” here as of this early morning / last night – and would be projected to fall over coming days. I’ve been on about this since early this week, and now see further confirmation that indeed – we should make the turn here and expect a lower dollar.

This being said – a number of trade opportunities are now available including long NZD/USD, AUD/USD, EUR/USD as well short USD/CAD and USD/CHF to name a few (a few that I am currently holding).

If you’ve been reading here at all over the past few months you’ll already know that I generally “buy around the horn” with smaller orders throughout a given few days – in order to catch the largest part of the move right at the start. (please research previous articles – this strategy is in there).

This has been a touch tricky here as of late with some real volatility out there – and currencies moving wildly….although as of this morning, I would be far more confident in putting some money to work.

For you equities guys – this “should” translate into higher stock prices (as unreal as this sounds) and for those still struggling with gold and silver (as am I) – likely as good a day for you to catch up on some yard work / house cleaning / snow shovelling etc…as I don’t expect a single things to budge.

…..Hope you all have a good day out there today.

24 Responses

  1. Warren February 13, 2013 / 8:14 am

    Good call on USD weakness, I’m also in short EUR as fundamentally it is the strongest currency as the ECB balance sheet is the only one in contraction right now. USD has the largest ballooning balance sheet. Thus I’m pairing the weakest with the strongest.
    I with you have added a small short EUR/USD with plans to add more if we close above the psychologically important 1.35 level toady.

    On a separate note I believe that the JPY is going to correct here very soon as their central bank has done nothing but speak/plan to devalue without actually doing anything yet. Because of this I think short term the JPY short trade is played out and will be looking for a break of 92.50 on USD/JPY to short it. As there is a trendline that has been acting as support since the beginning of February.

    Thanks for the great blog posts and daily Twitter updates.
    Warren

    • Pot Stock Watch February 13, 2013 / 8:33 am

      Hi Warren – thanx for stopping in and commenting – I’m hoping to get this “community” kick started.

      Your trades are a touch confusing to me as – USD weakness = EUR strength right? – perhaps I’ve misunderstood. You want to be long EUR here.

      Otherwise….the damn JPY pairs have indeed been a blast. I tried yesterday….and have looked again here this morning but….a correction MUST be due soon. Although – I dont expect much in USD/JPY as I will look for in the commods correcting.

      In any case….we will hit those “when we do”! – For today at least…lets see if we can get some follow through on this damn USD – and not another day of squiggles.

      • Warren February 13, 2013 / 1:28 pm

        Yep long EUR is a winner here! Looks like it was a day of wiggles, I added some more EUR/USD long at 1.3430. Stop on both positions is 1.3410, average price 1.3452. I’m thinking that initial jobless claims tomorrow could be the thing we need to get the dollar to start rolling over hard.

        • Pot Stock Watch February 13, 2013 / 2:33 pm

          Warren!

          Lookin good ma man…..and yes….another day of “squiggles” – sigh……they sure don’t make this easy do they?

          Thursday’s appear to be the new “pivot” as I might as well spent the last 3 days on the beach. Regardless….positioned…and patient.

  2. rolo February 13, 2013 / 2:46 pm

    GBP/USD looks like it’s still in a down trend so I guess that’s not one of your nine USD shorts Kong ?

    • Pot Stock Watch February 13, 2013 / 3:02 pm

      Damn Rolo….Ive been watching it like a hawk – and see it is so completely “ripe” for a buy long GBP – I still can’t do it.

      We’ve got another reader here ( or I hope she is still here ) werking GBP hard – I’d love to recommend a buy here long GBP vs USD but man….just can’t see the traction short of some of my short term signal ringing some bells.

      Lets see in a day or two – as I would jump on it like a fat kid on a smartie! ooops….ahh….screw it…..funny enough.

  3. Brad February 13, 2013 / 3:18 pm

    Hi Forex, been reading your blog a few days. I have a small long AUD and NZD position so glad to hear your thoughts. I am confused by your comments on metals. With $ down you don’t expect gold to go up? If you don’t expect it to go up when the $ is falling why are you holding it? When do you expect it to go up?
    thanks Man

    • Pot Stock Watch February 13, 2013 / 4:15 pm

      Hi Brad…thanks for commenting – we need more intelligent comments/opinions here.

      In a perfect world yes of course – we would all expect a weak dollar to translate into higher prices for the metals – unfortunately this isn’t happening for reason we’ve been over (not sure where you are reading me….here….or at the various blogs I frequent).

      I have been 100% complete honest in that yes I bought gold miner options in Nov – and more or less washed my hands of them a week later – grand total loss $1500.00

      I make and or float/laugh/joke the same amount any given hour of the day Brad – in that……options are a complete and total gamble.

  4. Brad February 13, 2013 / 4:25 pm

    I haven’t come across your thoughts on why gold is down. I don’t know if you believe it is being manipulated as I read elsewhere. I work in hedge funds (not as a trader) and asked a metals trader I know who at one stage was the largest gold trader in the world. He dismissed manipulation so my thoughts are if he doesn’t believe in it neither should I.

    • Pot Stock Watch February 13, 2013 / 4:28 pm

      Then I ask of you and your friend the same Brad…..with (obviously) much more experience and knowledge than I….why won’t it go up?

      I’ve written about it here on numerous occasions – and have been called a “wack” for the most part. Regardless – what’s important to me ( and my readers) is making money so….we continue on!

      A friend who was at one time was the largest gold trader in the world? – please tell more! What nationality was he/she?

  5. Brad February 13, 2013 / 4:47 pm

    He’s not well known (I have never heard of him), European guy, I was surprised when another trader told me that when he was at one of the big (non US) banks he was biggest gold trader in the world at the time. He just thinks pre December it was normal profit taking, I haven’t asked him since, though he did say he didn’t expect it to last too long. I am an amateur so not trying to be a smart ass or suggest you are wrong, I didn’t know if you bought into the manipulation theory, I want to believe it as am heavily long gold, but when a hedge fund trader tells me otherwise I worry there may be another reason. Still even a hedge fund traders get it wrong sometimes (as I have seen first hand!).

    Anyway enjoy your FX trades, only read a couple of days but you seem to be spot on.

    • Pot Stock Watch February 13, 2013 / 5:10 pm

      There you go Brad – always best to formulate your own thesis / trade ideas.

      It’s as likely you’ll here an equal number of ideas on both sides of the fence – bull or bear…..hence what makes a market right?

      I don’t read/follow others – perhaps for a bead on “sentiment” but most certainly not as I would place my own money at risk. It takes time for sure, and many many hours reading, researching etc.In all, I don’t imagine alot of people have the time or the energy…or perhaps the interest to see it through to formulate their own ideas. The “get quick rich gang” will learn their own lessons – I’m more of the mindset that “slow and steady wins the race”.

      Thanks for the support and please….please…..keep “chiming in” here whenever it strikes you!

  6. schmederling February 13, 2013 / 5:09 pm

    looks like we stop at 79.80 – 79.60……. from there who know’s but it’s a long way down from that point….

    • Pot Stock Watch February 13, 2013 / 5:15 pm

      Oh Schmed….If you can manage to hang on a couple more hours – I imagine you’ll be pleasantly surprised.

      I’m jumpy at times…this isn’t one of them – as I’ve got enough info to keep close to the gas peddle. Thursday’s are always a ride……and my “blow off top” is still in the making. No sleep for the wicked!

      • schmederling February 13, 2013 / 6:06 pm

        lol….. I can get jumpy… .LOL but I am not going anywhere…. still holding my audusd longs from Monday…. nice post today…

        • Pot Stock Watch February 13, 2013 / 6:16 pm

          He he….Schmed – you are a warrior for sure – mucho respeto!

          As well…..your opinion is greatly appreciated so tell me – what would you just as much value / enjoy hearing from me day to day here at the blog?

          My personal rants…exactly that…..the technical stuff….exactly that…my trades….that too.

          Gimme whatcha got man – I’m trying to get this right.

  7. John Wright February 13, 2013 / 6:58 pm

    Just keep doing your stuff Kong. They will come.
    A bit more detail on your trades maybe?
    Really enjoying the the blog.
    The more posts/rants in the comments here and on twitter the better.

  8. schmederling February 13, 2013 / 7:08 pm

    Hey Kong….. yeah… I basically honkerd- myself into this position for a longer haul… Missed the bottom by 26hrs… but I am not complaining. I am not moving but will lighten the load tomorrow… that was my target…. the remainder will ride. I am still waiting for the weekly squeeze set-up to unfold…. If I am right… well… it will be time for a break… vacation for sure….

    As for the blog…. I would not change a thing… not anything which stands out… but when it does I’ll let you know for sure…

    • Pot Stock Watch February 14, 2013 / 7:33 am

      Again Schmed – you are inspirational! Go man go!

      I love it…..you make sure to let me know!

  9. John Wright February 13, 2013 / 7:15 pm

    Adding to position here AUD/USD @ 1.0348.

  10. schmederling February 13, 2013 / 9:57 pm

    Multi-orders hit – range 103.352 all the way down to 1.03445…. will have these run until 2:45am…. needs a nap…. cheers

  11. John Wright February 14, 2013 / 1:51 am

    Anyone seeing the big H&S on the daily UDX?
    I mean its too big to miss but I havent seen it mentioned on any site.

    • Pot Stock Watch February 14, 2013 / 7:32 am

      Thanks John….”any and all” input more than welcome.

  12. illutionz February 14, 2013 / 9:50 pm

    Another bullseye call from the Kong… Bravo.

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